The Department has estimated the net reduction in Federal spending associated with the proposed rule to be approximately $9.4 billion over the five years 2019-2023.  Included in this is an estimated reduction in Federal transfers of approximately $10.543 billion over the five-year period as well as a $1.157 billion increase in Federal administrative costs.  The Department estimates an additional $1.157 billion in administrative costs to State agencies (for a total of $2.314 billion in additional administrative costs).  The Department estimates that approximately 9 percent of currently-participating SNAP households will lose eligibility for SNAP because their incomes or resources exceed Federal SNAP eligibility standards (an estimated 1.7 million households in FY 2020, containing 3.1 million individuals).  In addition, the Department estimates that households that remain eligible for SNAP (approximately 17.2 million households containing 34.7 million individuals) and new SNAP applicants will face additional burden associated with the application process, at a cost of approximately $5 million annually.  We would expect that the changes in the final rule to be roughly at that order of magnitude, but a precise estimate is pending final policy decisions.

The projected benefit of the rule is to create a more consistent nationwide policy that limits categorical eligibility to households that have sufficiently demonstrated need by qualifying for ongoing and substantial benefits from TANF-funded programs designed to assist low-income households and help them move towards self-sufficiency.  In addition, the revisions would help ensure that receipt of nominal, one-time benefits (such as a brochure) does not confer categorical eligibility.